How crime and homelessness could flip Oregon red for the first time in decades

Sarah Westwood

October 22, 02:12 PM October 22, 02:12 PM

PORTLAND, Oregon — Business owners in Oregon’s largest city say crime is not only affecting their ability to operate, but also, potentially, their vote next month.

“I basically pull up here every morning and sort of hold my breath, hoping that no one’s destroyed my porch and broken into my business,” Amanda Horne, the owner of Grindhouse Coffee, told the Washington Examiner.

Vandals and burglars have repeatedly hit Horne’s Portland business over the past two years, she said in an interview in front of broken stained glass panels that her late grandfather had made for her shop.

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Small business owners across the city deal with the same daily realities, Horne said, because of a lack of policing.

“It’d be a lot easier to make a list of who hasn’t been broken into than who has. It’d be a much shorter list,” she said.

Homelessness and crime in Portland have exploded over the two years following the civil unrest that was inspired by the murder of George Floyd. City leaders initially cut funding from the police budget under pressure from activists, but they later added the money back amid a rise in violence.

The sense of lawlessness in Portland has persisted.

That sense has driven some voters in the liberal enclave of Portland (and indeed, all around the reliably blue state of Oregon) to reconsider their party loyalties heading into an election that could deliver to Oregon its first Republican governor in 40 years.

Gerald McAleese, the owner of Kell’s Irish Pub in downtown Portland, said homelessness has completely changed the neighborhood and his business since he opened his doors in 1990.

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“It’s been [a] catastrophe, in just one simple word,” he said in an interview.

McAleese said repeated pandemic closures and the 2020 riots complicated his ability to retain staff, saying he has gone from employing 62 workers to 12.

Loretta Guzman, the owner of Bison Coffeehouse, announced earlier this month that she planned to host an event to convene community members and police officers at her shop. Hours after she posted about the gathering, vandals arrived with crowbars and bags of paint that they sprayed across the floor and walls of her coffeehouse.

The attack was featured during the final gubernatorial debate of the race this week. Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan, and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson were each asked to speak about the anti-police sentiment that seemingly drove the vandals — a sentiment that has permeated throughout Portland over the past two years.

Both Drazan and Johnson took aim at Kotek for her previous defense of rioters who wrought havoc across the city for months following the height of 2020’s racial protests.

“I’ve had people sleeping in my door entrance and starting fires in the middle of the night. I’ve had needles in front of my shop. I’ve had throw-up all over out there,” Guzman told the Washington Examiner. “And I’m the one who has to come and clean it.”

Drazan has opened up a narrow lead in several recent polls, thanks in large part to the strong appeal of Johnson, whose candidacy has pulled more voters from the Democratic Party than from Republicans.

A poll commissioned by Kotek’s campaign and released this week showed the Democratic candidate with a 2-percentage-point lead over Drazan.

But independent polls have registered a slight lead for Drazan, although the race remains exceedingly close heading into Election Day.

In a deeply Democratic state like Oregon, undecided voters could break toward the dominant party in the final days of the race.

There are nearly 300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, giving Democrats a sizable voter registration advantage.

But more voters are registered as unaffiliated than as supporters of either party — which could help explain Johnson’s unusual strength in the polls.

Guzman said she believes Johnson’s support among voters is higher than what pollsters are picking up.

“They show her polls being low, but I think a lot of people are looking at her, and I think Christine Drazan, people are really looking at her,” Guzman said. “I think that Tina’s low on the polls. That’s just my opinion and listening to people.”

“I think a lot of people are ready for change. And they feel that people have not listened to them or stood up for them,” she said. “A lot of people don’t feel safe right now.”

Horne, like other Oregonians the Washington Examiner interviewed this week, said Kotek’s backing remains significant due to the state’s heavy Democratic tilt.

“I know there are a lot of loyal people that are wanting Tina Kotek,” Horne said. “And then there’s a lot of people who are not wanting her in because of her current seat, and things just haven’t changed, and so I think it’s kind of a gamble, honestly, at this point.”

Kotek served as the Democratic speaker of the state’s House for nearly a decade.