Hotline mailbag: Ought to the Pac-12 look at enlargement, or contraction, to maximize media value?

The Hotline mailbag is printed just about every Friday. Send out concerns to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or strike me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Due to volume — and in some circumstances, the need for analysis — not all questions will be answered the week of submission. Many thanks for your knowledge.

Some issues have been edited for clarity and brevity.

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Is there any likelihood the Pac-12 may possibly develop previous the 12 teams? — @interesting_brezze

On the reverse of enlargement, could you imagine the meeting bettering revenue distribution via contraction as an alternative? It may possibly be the greatest way to substantially enhance for each-team profits by chopping out weaker one-way links with less Tv set charm. — @TJAltimore

Past week, we tackled the risk of 4 Pac-12 educational institutions leaving the conference for the Major Ten, so let us start off with two other realignment solutions:

Bringing universities into the fold and expelling longtime customers.

From here, it is obvious the Pac-12 would only develop if new users could improve media value for the collective and manage, or increase, the league’s aggressive placement.

Commissioner George Kliavkoff and his staff dove into the topic previous summer season and concluded the most effective shift was no move.

None of the colleges in the reconfigured Significant 12 or in the present-day Mountain West met the barrier for entry.

Texas and Oklahoma were being the only faculty soccer makes large sufficient to significantly boost the Pac-12’s strategic and economical position. The moment they agreed to join the SEC, the Pac-12 was still left staring at the status quo.

We wouldn’t dare ignore the likely for the meeting to revisit expansion in the future. (In our perspective, Houston should really be the No. 1 choice.)

But it seems there will be 12 schools, not 14 or 16, when the convention agrees to a new media legal rights offer someday next calendar year.

And that suggests no contraction, possibly.

I presume your reference to “weaker backlinks with significantly less Television set appeal” suggests Washington Point out and Oregon Condition — the universities often cited by lovers when this subject surfaces on social media.

Properly, we have news for you: The majority of schools have tiny or zero appeal to media companions.

ESPN and Fox and other media networks interested in Pac-12 content material want the rights to display USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington and potentially Utah. The remaining eight merely deliver the stock, the games.

(What about Arizona basketball? Effectively, soccer accounts for roughly 90 cents of just about every media dollar put in on the Pac-12. Basketball barely moves the needle.)

There are other things in the contraction discussion, starting with the unseemly nature of institutions of bigger schooling booting customers with shared tutorial missions — all in the identify of athletic pounds.

In an severe predicament, any move to expulsion would need a super-vast majority vote of the presidents, and all those from the small-revenue educational institutions without doubt would block the vote.

Also, be conscious of the political issues.

Attempts to separate WSU from Washington would be taken up in Olympia, while a similar pursuit in Oregon would end up in Salem.

In California, a shift to detach UCLA from Cal unquestionably would entail the Board of Regents, because the colleges are part of the identical university method. (Arizona and ASU also share a Board of Regents, for what it is really worth.)

Is there historical precedent for expelling customers? Yes and no.

The Pacific Coast Conference pursued a edition of contraction in the late 1950s, when a handful of faculties essentially broke off and fashioned their personal league — a league that ultimately became the Pac-8.

However, we are not aware of contraction at the significant meeting amount in the present day era.

Sure, there have been conditions of reorganization. The Mountain West is the consequence of a substantial, stealth re-org (from the previous Western Athletic Meeting).

But what would the Pac-12 morph into? If you want the media bucks, you need match stock. There is no area for a six- or 8-staff convention on the present-day landscape.

So back again to the unique thoughts …

We can not fathom contraction.

We do not foresee growth.

And we do not count on voluntary departures.

Though a handful of educational facilities bolting for the Huge Ten continues to be the likeliest of the 3 scenarios, it is nevertheless not really most likely.

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If non-conference game titles are not taken into thought in pinpointing which teams engage in in the Pac-12 championship, doesn’t this imply extra scheduling like UCLA’s 2022 slate (Bowling Green, South Alabama, Alabama Condition) and a diminishing of the Pac-12’s media inventory? — Jon Joseph

In advance of featuring our perspective, it’s crucial to be aware that UCLA was scheduled to participate in Michigan this time in the Huge Dwelling — until finally the Wolverines canceled the household-and-household collection a several years back.

At that position, the Bruins had to scramble to discover a video game and, missing a practical Ability Five opponent, opted for dates with Traditionally Black Faculties and Universities. (They will engage in North Carolina Central in 2023.)

A lot more broadly, we really don't assume Pac-12 groups to abide by the path to Creampuff Town due to the fact of economic factors: Followers are much more most likely to acquire tickets for superior-degree competition.

(SEC schools can routine FCS opponents and nonetheless provide 80,000 tickets Pac-12 colleges simply cannot.)

Also, most Pac-12 programs have crammed their non-meeting schedules for decades to appear — and the lineups contain loads of Electric power Five opponents.

Bear in mind, the restructured course of action for determining which groups take part in the Pac-12 championship is merely a 4-12 months bridge.

Assuming the School Soccer Playoff expands to 12 groups in the 2026 year, the conference will re-look at all the things about the plan.

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Could you see the Pac-12 Community partnering with 1 of the streaming companies and continue to be capable to deliver improved provider across all sporting activities? — @seataz2000

The Pac-12 Networks have quite a few streaming partners, such as Fubo and Sling, and we assume people to continue to be in position for two more several years.

Every thing improvements when the Pac-12’s up coming media legal rights cycle starts in the summer season of 2024.

Our greatest guess is the Pac-12 Networks will not exist as a linear (cable Tv) system but, somewhat, will develop into a streaming-only provider owned and operated by the convention.

The content on a streaming-only Pac-12 Networks would focus on Olympic athletics, with soccer and men’s basketball games out there on the likes of Fox and ESPN.

That is not the only solution, on the other hand.

The Pac-12 Networks could be consumed by a major media enterprise and operate in significantly the exact way as the Large 10 Network, which is owned by Fox and demonstrates a blend of soccer, basketball and Olympic sporting activities.

The Pac-12 had a possibility to enter into a related agreement with ESPN a number of many years back but declined the give.

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Other than blocking the 12-group playoff, does the Alliance going forward provide any function that advantages the Pac-12? — @TerryTerry79

1st, I would argue (and have) that the alliance is now a accomplishment at the most essential stage: It contained realignment to the SEC and Huge 12.

After the presidents of the Pac-12, ACC and Major Ten pledged security, the sport prevented devastating upheaval.

The partnership seemingly played a role in the Higher education Soccer Playoff debate, as properly.

Although the ACC, Massive Ten and Pac-12 had unique causes for voting towards growth, it seems the alliance established a stage of have faith in and communication between commissioners that, in delicate style, assisted convey the method to a halt.

The only factor left for the alliance to execute, in our perspective, is a scheduling agreement that would produce new inventory for the conferences to dangle in entrance of their media associates.

But that piece is amorphous. The leagues already have video games scheduled against each individual other — and versus the SEC and Massive 12.

Also, there is no space in the Large Ten’s program for a focused intersectional series.

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Just how major of a disaster was Larry Scott? — @JonJaco06054241

I will point out right here precisely what has been supplied in this place beforehand: