Five not-so-random views on the Pac-12 …
1. UCLA’s messy predicament could get worse
With California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the College of California Regents demanding a assessment of UCLA’s double-key transfer to the Large 10, we see exactly why the Bruins opted for the stealth approach in the very first location.
Had they taken a additional public route to exiting the Pac-12 and leaving Cal driving, the go assuredly would have been blocked or delayed at the bureaucratic level.
It does not look the UC regents can avoid the Bruins from joining the Big Ten in 2024. But if wished-for, they could attempt to make the process extremely difficult by whacking UCLA wherever it hurts most: In the wallet.
Multiple resources believe the regents will explore forcing the Bruins to subsidize Cal’s athletic department, which stands to shed tens of millions each year in Pac-12 distributions because of the decline of the Los Angeles marketplace.
The details of a electric power move by the regents are unanswerable at this position, like how the money would be redirected.
We are not confident they can contact Major 10 earnings as a substitute, they may well have to strike UCLA’s state allocations.
Either way, a loss of revenue for UCLA’s athletic section could have important repercussions.
Why? Due to the fact the Bruins are already in personal debt. Massive debt. Colossal personal debt.
Right before COVID, they have been going through a multi-calendar year shortfall of approximately $40 million. In accordance to the L.A. Moments, the bill has grown to $100 million.
That, not the desire to commit weekends in Iowa Town, is why the Bruins are leaving their longtime home for a convention 2,000 miles away.
The large windfall from joining the Massive 10 will allow for them, sooner or later, to climb into the black.
Chancellor Gene Block cares about UCLA’s athletic department only to the extent that he doesn’t have to spend for it. He saw the Significant 10 move as a get-out-of-financial debt card and utilised it.
But if the Bruins are compelled to divert a substantial sum each year to Cal, they won’t have the resources to support their plans, like soccer, at the level needed to thrive in the Significant Ten.
The previous factor the Bruins want is to start off their new existence without the capacity to reinvest.
Just question Maryland and Rutgers what that’s like.
Keep on down the wormhole, and it is straightforward to imagine UCLA’s Olympic sports groups, currently experiencing taxing travel, struggling to compete at their accustomed level.
To justify the shift, the Bruins ought to get — and gain early — in the athletics they have ordinarily dominated.
The UC regents could make that vastly far more difficult.
We aren’t convinced the regents will follow by with economic penalties, and we do not assume a change of coronary heart from the Bruins.
But both predicaments are value monitoring, as is the stage of buyer’s regret that may possibly surface more than the following 24 months.
2. Taking part in protection with offense
The Hotline made its position crystal clear on enlargement earlier this 7 days. If the Pac-12 decides to replace the Los Angeles colleges, San Diego State is the obvious selection.
The Aztecs supply a foothold in the league’s most critical recruiting area. They are opening a new stadium, they can compete at the Pac-12 level in soccer and basketball, and they convey a leading-30 media marketplace.
But an added issue should really be pointed out: The need for the Pac-12 to use SDSU as a defensive enjoy.
If the conference passes on the Aztecs, they would turn out to be available to a perhaps aggressive Big 12.
Granted, that is not a very likely consequence. But practically nothing can be dismissed as conferences make membership choices dependent on financial and aggressive positioning for the new period in college or university soccer.
As of 2024, the Huge Ten will personal the Los Angeles basin and all its accompanying riches.
The Pac-12 can not manage to cede San Diego County to the Large 12.
3. Who’s No. 12?
If the Pac-12 remains intact and expands, it would have to have to add an even number of teams. In addition to San Diego Condition, which educational facilities make feeling? A swift summary:
— Fresno State has a competitive football system but sits just outside the house the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto media market place, which is No. 20 in the country (bigger than Portland, San Diego and Salt Lake City). Depending on the valuation assigned to FSU by media firms, the Bulldogs are well worth looking at.
— SMU would make it possible for the Pac-12 to acquire a presence in the Dallas market place. The college is No. 68 in the US News and Entire world Report rankings and would definitely welcome an invitation, having been handed over by the Significant 12 (which now has TCU in Fort Value).
— And until eventually the Pac-12 does not try to steal colleges at present in the Significant 12 (or scheduling to join the conference), we will not low cost the possible for intense motion by commissioner George Kliavkoff. In that case, Houston and TCU may well be atop the would like listing.
How it unfolds, we cannot get started to guess. But the Hotline’s target, right here and generally, is to look at all scenarios so visitors are not shocked by any result.
If there is a non-zero probability, we goal to address it.
4. Tricky timing for Oregon and Washington
In an excellent planet, the Pacific Northwest powers would do completely practically nothing for the subsequent two several years.
They would continue being particularly where they are, with out a extended-phrase agreement binding them to either the Pac-12 or the Big 12.
Why? For the reason that free of charge company is the area until finally the Large 10 and Notre Dame complete their very long, sluggish dance.
Notre Dame’s deal with NBC expires at the conclusion of the 2025 period, clearing the way for the Irish to join the Large Ten for ’26 — the initial calendar year of the expanded College or university Soccer Playoff.
And if the Large Ten adds a 17th crew, it would need to have an 18th — and perhaps a 19th and 20th, as effectively.
Washington and Oregon would be sturdy candidates, as would Stanford (because of the tutorial popularity and Bay Location media marketplace).
Portion of the obstacle for Kliavkoff as he makes an attempt to keep the meeting collectively is crafting an agreement that serves two masters:
— Binding adequate to induce high quality bids from probable media associates.
— Versatile ample to fulfill Pac-12 schools with one particular eye on the Large Ten.
Mainly because it has attributes the Major Ten may possibly want even though the Significant 12 has absolutely nothing left of value to the two tremendous-leagues, the Pac-12 is seemingly less secure than its neighbor in the Southern Plains.
5. The new men
A single last dynamic worthy of notice as school football rocks and roils is the deficiency of experience atop all but one particular of the Power Five conferences.
SEC’s Greg Sankey: Employed in 2015
Big Ten’s Kevin Warren: Employed in 2019
ACC’s Jim Phillips: Employed in 2020
Pac-12’s George Kliavkoff: Hired in 2021
Major 12’s Brett Yormark: Hired in 2022
We’re not absolutely sure a strategic edge exists, beyond that which accompanies the convention with the very best solution and most significant marketplaces.
But the lineup of newcomers adds an unpredictable factor to the proceedings.
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*** Comply with me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not automatically replicate the views of the Conference.
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