Pac-12 survival manual: Five forces that will determine the path to salvation, or extinction

In coming days, weeks and months, the Pac-12 will plot a program to salvation … or go the way of the dodo.

A range of results exists adhering to the loss of USC and UCLA to the Massive 10, from merging with a peer conference or growing its ranks to sticking with 10 colleges or vanishing from the landscape entirely.

In an future Hotline series, we’ll plunge into the particular scenarios.

This introductory installment examines 5 broad concerns that will condition our conversations and the future of the conference.

1. Pac-12 presidents: The warmth is on

Survival begins at the major, which must be bring about for worry throughout the footprint.

The conference has been pushed to the brink since the presidents and chancellors did not prioritize football, signed off on lousy media strategies and waited way too very long to change commissioners.

Now, they ought to settle on an id for the reconfigured meeting and figure out which universities apparent the barrier for entry.

Will the membership benchmarks in area for a long time go on to exist with regard to educational reputation, political leanings and spiritual affiliation?

If so, the route forward narrows substantially.

Of all the presidents, we wonder most about Washington’s Ana Mari Cauce, who took around as chair of the Pac-12 board on Friday.

If the Huskies ultimately negotiate guiding-the-scenes for invites to the Massive Ten or Major 12, that is a huge conflict of desire.

2. Nervous days, worrisome evenings

The next two months are very important. “We have to have items to gradual down,” a single Pac-12 resource reported, in get for a degree of have confidence in and sanity to return.

At the second, convention and campus leaders obtain on Zoom calls and surprise who’s truly committed and whose experience they may be viewing for the very last time.

The Major 10 appears concluded with enlargement, for now, so our focus turns to the Huge 12 and its stage of aggression.

A 12 months ago, the scenario was reversed. Texas and Oklahoma had declared programs to move to the SEC, and the Huge 12 was battling for survival.

The Pac-12 declined to merge but, by not poaching the most desirable colleges, allowed the Major 12 to endure.

Will the emboldened Large 12 convert about and endeavor a destroy shot, or return the favor and stand down?

3. Media companion enthusiasm

For 10 years, Fox and ESPN have been equal entrepreneurs of the Pac-12’s media rights.

That shared fascination probably won’t proceed when the latest deal expires in the spring of 2024.

Fox orchestrated what could be the knockout blow and the puppet-grasp driving the Significant Ten’s raid of the Los Angeles educational facilities.

The move implies it will have very little interest in Pac-12 media rights in the future deal cycle. Most, if not all of its hard cash will be invested on the Major Ten and the expanded College or university Football Playoff.

Meanwhile, ESPN could perform a vital function in rescuing the Pac-12.

When the upcoming contract cycle begins, ESPN will regulate all ACC and SEC soccer material but possibly pretty tiny — or none — of the Massive Ten’s stock.

That’s major, simply because ESPN has additional shelf place than Fox owing to extra linear networks (ESPN2) and its motivation to a electronic platform (ESPN+).

It requires feasible college or university soccer in the Central, Mountain and Pacific time zones in get to fill all those people broadcast home windows.

Presented the desperation degree of the Pac-12 and Major 12, whose latest media deal expires in 2025, their stock will definitely be offered for whatsoever value ESPN is keen to shell out.

ESPN can title the phrases and, if wished-for, dictate which faculties are in which league.

4. The tent pole schools

Of the 80-anything important higher education soccer systems not sure to the SEC, Large 10 or ACC — and are not Notre Dame — the Pac-12 owns the two most important in the media market: Washington and Oregon.

If we assume the doorway to the Massive 10 is closed and the Huskies and Ducks are fully commited to the Pac-12, if only for lack of excellent choices, they supply actual leverage.

Leverage the conference can use with ESPN or other interested media firms.

Leverage the meeting can use with faculties in the Large 12 or Mountain West that might be growth targets.

Leverage the convention can use with present-day Pac-12 colleges pondering a bounce to the Major 12.

With the Huskies and Ducks, there is a foundation to move ahead.

The Pac-12 have to make the best possible use of its purple and environmentally friendly carrots.