Midterm Memo: Republicans aren't the only ones with questionable Senate candidates

David M. Drucker

October 20, 07:00 AM October 20, 07:00 AM

To borrow a phrase from former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party didn’t “send its best” when it nominated a slate of general election candidates to compete for the Senate majority in the midterm elections.

But the GOP’s struggle with candidate quality in Arizona and Georgia, some might say Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire — others might throw in North Carolina — is nothing new as we pass the three-week point until Election Day. Lesser discussed are a couple of clunkers nominated by the Democrats who might cost them an opportunity to hold their 50-seat Senate majority despite the political headwinds the party is having to deal with.

I’m talking about Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman and Wisconsin’s Mandela Barnes, both of whom were elected lieutenant governor of their respective states in 2018.

Barnes, 35, is dynamic and likable. He’s acquitted himself well in debates with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and is raising tens of millions of dollars for his campaign. But Barnes is also a liberal hard-liner with a recent history of criticizing law enforcement and suggesting support for reducing police budgets.

All of this in a bona fide swing state, in a year that could see a red wave sweep Democrats from power across the country, at a time when crime is spiking in Milwaukee and Wisconsin is still feeling the sting of the 2020 Kenosha riots and 2021 Waukesha Christmas parade massacre. It’s no wonder Johnson has led in eight of the last 10 polls dating to early September.

Fetterman, 53, has his own soft-on-crime problems to deal with, courtesy of his staunch support for granting clemency to convicted criminals, including some in jail for murder — not inconsequential in Pennsylvania, another legitimate swing state with rising crime in its biggest cities.

But if Dr. Mehmet Oz defeats Fetterman and holds this open seat for the Republicans — Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is retiring — it might not be so much a case of Democrats nominating the wrong candidate as being saddled with some ill-timed bad luck.

For all of Fetterman’s vulnerabilities — on crime, his association with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings — his outsider hoody-and-cargo-shorts-wearing everyman persona plays well in Pennsylvania, especially considering Oz just emigrated to the commonwealth from New Jersey. All of this might have helped Democrats flip a sorely needed Republican seat and protect their majority had Fetterman not suffered a stroke and been saddled with a difficult recovery that is still ongoing.

Fetterman might yet still win — he continues to lead in the polls.

But Oz has been steadily gaining on him as voters question whether he is physically and mentally up for the job of being a senator. And Fetterman has bizarrely allowed those questions to fester by not being more transparent about his recovery and physical and mental capacity and doing more — in public appearances, interviews with reporters, and otherwise — to reassure voters that he is prepared to hit the ground running when the new Congress is sworn into office in January.

With that in mind, Tuesday’s debate with Oz in Harrisburg could be the decisive moment of the campaign. Now, to the field …

HOLLYWOOD HEAVY HITTERS STUMP FOR ABRAMS AND WARNOCK

By the #s:

Colorado Senate race. The Centennial State is one where Republicans are looking for an upset or two should the party experience particularly good fortune in the midterm elections. In other words, all signs point to Republican gains Nov. 8. But if the red wave is really big, Republicans are hopeful it will sweep Democrats from power in Colorado, a reliably blue state since President George W. Bush won there in 2004.

The exception? Republicans captured a Senate seat there in 2014, a midterm election year that featured a GOP wave.

But fresh polling from the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group suggests 2022 will not be like 2014, at least not in Colorado. Per a survey of registered voters conducted Oct. 6-11, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) led Republican challenger Joe O’Dea 50% to 35%, with that margin decreasing only slightly, to 49% to 38%, when screening for the voters most likely to participate in the contest.

Meanwhile, Trump this week more or less urged his loyal voting base to oppose O’Dea, who is trying to overcome the partisan challenges of running in a Democratic state by moderating his tone and keeping his distance from the former president. In a post on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform he founded, Trump called O’Dea a ”RINO” — a Republican in name only — saying, “MAGA doesn’t vote for stupid people with big mouths. Good luck, Joe!”

New York governor’s race. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) still trails Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the Empire State. But in four of five polls conducted this month, Zeldin has trailed the incumbent by less than 10 percentage points. Indeed, he was down to Hochul by a mere 4 points in a survey from Quinnipiac University conducted just last week.

Perhaps the polling is off. Perhaps Hochul is suffering from the fact that she is in the midst of her first general election campaign for governor. She was the lieutenant governor and became New York’s chief executive last year after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace. Or perhaps Zeldin is picking up more support than Republicans have lately in deep-blue New York because of rising crime and other issues fueling the possibility of a red wave in November.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Hochul was garnering just under 50% and led by just 6.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Consider that in the context of the fact that Biden, in 2020, outpaced Trump in New York by more than 23 points, capturing 61% of the vote.

2024 watch. Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), who has made no secret about his consideration of a presidential bid, hosted an “ideas summit” in Bentonville, Arkansas, on Wednesday, dubbed "America Leads."

Hutchinson’s viability in a Republican primary is questionable. The governor was a chairman of Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign in Arkansas but since then has been periodically critical of the former president for his handling of the post-election period and Jan. 6, 2021. That, and his civil approach to politicking, could be challenging in an era in which the GOP base continues to hold Trump in high regard and want politicians who are combatants.

But Hutchinson is continuing to make the rounds nationally to figure out if there might be a path for him. And this week, as a part of that effort, he welcomed national GOP figures to Arkansas for his summit. Among the featured speakers were former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

By the way, who else joined Hutchinson onstage at the summit? Sarah Huckabee Sanders, virtually assured of succeeding Hutchinson in the governor’s mansion early next year.