THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
GIANTS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jaguars by 3, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s an inviting line if you’re a big fan of the impressive 5-1 Giants but the bubble could burst here. The Jaguars’ defense is built to stop them. Its weakness is against the pass and the Giants have just been getting by there. But that defense is ranked third against the run with a defensive front that can stand up to the Giants’ emerging offensive line. The Jaguars are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games against NFC teams. Their last win? Over the Giants. Brian Daboll’s team is good, just not 6-1 good, and the odds might catch up to them this week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the under.
JETS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Broncos by 2 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: In a battle of Wilsons at QB, we’re taking Zach. Russell Wilson is day-to-day with a hamstring injury. His inability to create on the run as he once did in Seattle has been obvious and this won’t help him escape Quinnen Williams. We love the Jets’ energy so far as opposed to the malaise that is Denver’s. The Broncos may have a formidable defense but we like the young Jets’ stars to get enough things done. You don’t need many points to beat the Broncos. And that’s also a good reason to keep going under the total until they prove otherwise. Also note: the Jets are 3-0 ATS as an away team this season, totaling a league-high 12.8 over the number.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
SEAHAWKS at CHARGERS
4:25 p.m., Chargers by 6 ½, 51 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Seahawks can hang around in this one because they can run the ball and while the Chargers’ run defense has improved over last season, it has been giving up chunk plays to the tune of 5.6 yards per carry. Seattle has been a little hit or miss on offense and this feels like a hit week against a defense that allows 25.3 ppg. Justin Herbert hasn’t achieved any rhythm with his offense with Keenan Allen out of the lineup, and although Allen could return this week, his timing has to be off after five straight weeks on the sidelines. The Bolts are 1-2 ATS at home and are minus 11.3 points to the number, the worst mark in the league.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.
LIONS at COWBOYS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 7, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: Dak is back and he couldn’t name a better opponent for the occasion. Let’s put it this way. The Lions have a defense in name only. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. They’re allowing 428.6 yards per game, for goodness sake. The Lions were rolling on offense until Bill Belichick’s boys figured them out two weeks ago. They’re coming off a bye but that’s not nearly enough time to fix their mess. This is still a very good Dallas D in spite of what happened in Philly last week and they should be all over Jared Goff here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the over.
COLTS at TITANS
1 p.m., Titans by 2 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Colts — and especially Matt Ryan — are playing much better than they were when they suffered a touchdown defeat to the Titans and are now on a 3-1 ATS run with the lone defeat coming in that game. Ryan threw for 356 yards that day but was undone by turnovers. The rematch comes against the 32nd-ranked Titans pass defense, which has allowed four straight opposing QBs to surpass 300 yards. Jonathan Taylor is expected to return to lend balance. Plus, Indy can’t afford to lose this one or it will fall 1 ½ games back in the division. We look for things to even out.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.
BUCS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Bucs by 10 ½, 40 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Something’s not right with the Bucs and it’s quite possible that this whole Tom Brady melodrama has been a drain on the team. Even with Brady and his offense in synch, the Bucs weren’t covering big spreads, especially on the road. Going back to the start of their Super Bowl year, the Bucs are just 11-12 overall ATS away from Tampa. Yes, the Panthers stink and they couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against the Rams last week. But their defense isn’t half-bad. Grumpy Tom’s offense has barely averaged 20 ppg and that shouldn’t be enough to cover here. That also makes the under bet a sensible hedge.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.
CHIEFS at 49ERS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 3, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The 49ers are missing the core of their defense with injury, which isn’t good for a team that is carried by its defense. They couldn’t handle Marcus Mariota’s running last week and now face one of the best running QBs in history, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes still hasn’t gotten into a rhythm with his new wide receivers but that could happen this week. Jimmy G hasn’t been the answer for a low-scoring 49ers offense that might be forced into a shootout. The 49ers are a running team first and the Chiefs are ranked fourth against the run.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the over.
STEELERS at DOLPHINS
8:20 p.m., Dolphins by 7, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Tua Tagovailoa’s prime-time return after a three-game losing streak should have the Dolphins re-energized and motivated. The difference before and after has been eye-opening. Somehow the Steelers’ injured defense played way over its head against the Brady Bunch but even with Minkah Fitzpatrick set to return, the secondary is still banged up and will have problems with Miami’s speed. Mike Tomlin is going back to Kenny Pickett, as long as he passes concussion protocol, even after Mitch Trubisky played his best football off the bench last week. It’s still a tough spot for either QB, however.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
BROWNS at RAVENS
1 p.m., Ravens by 6 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Browns are in the doldrums that even playing against a divisional rival might not cure. Their defense has been getting ravaged and it’s become a lot easier to limit their bruising run game as the Pats did last week. RG Wyatt Teller’s continued absence won’t help. Everything else is slow and plodding. While the Ravens’ defense has been substandard for the franchise, take away the fourth quarter and the Ravens would be among the top teams in the league. That trend’s not going to continue for long. We think the league’s fifth-highest-scoring team figures it out.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.
BEARS at PATRIOTS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Pats by 7 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Patriots have found their identity for the season and it’s working. Consider that Bailey Zappe leads the NFL with a 111.4 passer rating because of the Pats’ complimentary running game. Similar to last week against the Browns, Bill Belichick will take away the Bears’ strong suit, their running game, and put everything on Justin Fields’ shoulders. It’s a recipe for interceptions — perhaps a defensive score — and a double-digit win. The Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games if that matters. The Patriots don’t lose to bad teams and certainly not at home.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
FALCONS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Bengals by 6 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Do you want to step in front of a Falcons train that has steamrolled the spread in all six of their games this season? Or do you believe that the Bengals, with four straight wins ATS, are returning to their Super Bowl ways? It all depends on which offense sets the tone. The Falcons are hard to play against with Marcus Mariota using so much RPO and with Cincy struggling to stop the run, that’s a big issue. On the other hand, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, et al., seem to be rounding back into form and they will be up against a pass defense ranked 31st out of 32 teams.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Falcons and the over.
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BEST OF THE REST
TEXANS at RAIDERS
4:05 p.m., Raiders by 7, 45 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the over.
PACKERS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Packers by 5 ½, 41 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Jets. Receipt please.
LAST WEEK: 5-9 ATS, 7-7 OVER/UNDER
OVERALL: 41-52-1 ATS, 46-47-1 OVER/UNDER
BEST BETS: 3-3
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