Hotline mailbag: Expansion timeline, the Major Ten’s looming menace, the Fox component, UC bureaucracy and a lot more

The Hotline mailbag is released each individual week. Send out queries to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or strike me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.

Be sure to take note: Some queries have been edited for clarity and brevity.

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What is the timeline on the lookout like for the Pac-12 to make a decision on enlargement? Do you feel it’ll be wrapped up by the time the meeting makes its media rights deal public following yr (or later on)? — @cgboan

Most likely, a selection on growth and the act of signing a new media rights settlement will unfold concurrently.

In our estimation, the course of activities will comply with a person of two paths:

— The Pac-12 symptoms an special deal with ESPN, as a 10-university meeting, in the subsequent two or 3 months.

— The Pac-12 negotiates with numerous bidders on the open marketplace and requires a hard search at expansion in a process that  consumes 6-to-eight months, if not for a longer time.

The Significant 10 just announced a new media legal rights arrangement right after 6 months (roughly) of negotiations. These items choose time, until you have a killer deal on the desk. And there is no cause to count on ESPN to make a killer give initially, if at all.

So let’s think the Pac-12 hits the open industry. The negotiations will unquestionably include growth scenarios and profits designs for several results and faculties.

The need for inventory to fill plenty of time slots to fulfill potential companions could enjoy a part. Far more groups equates to far more online games and additional programming several hours.

The presidents and chancellors will (presumably) pick out the solution that gives the most effective mixture of earnings for all, adaptability for educational facilities hoping to be a part of the Large Ten, and security for the relaxation of the membership.

That’s a steep problem and the motive we have mounted Pac-12 survival as a mere 4.5-position favourite in excess of Pac-12 extinction: It is the most probably end result but barely a assurance primarily based on current dynamics.

If the convention opts to grow, that method would hold off the signing of a media rights settlement simply because of numerous lawful and conference governance problems.

Again, glimpse to the Huge 10 for timeline insight: USC and UCLA joined on June 30, but the deal wasn’t finalized for seven more weeks.

If the Pac-12 decides to grow, it is not unreasonable to consider the course of action (introducing associates and signing a media contract) could span the complete soccer season.

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Will Fox also get, or want, a share of the legal rights to broadcast Pac-12 football? — @matt_schnuck

Which is a essential challenge, and a person with considerable uncertainty.

Our resources in the media space are skeptical that Fox will bid on Pac-12 information, and the absence of a Fox electronic arm undoubtedly doesn’t enable the Pac-12’s bring about.

Even so, it’s critical to don't forget the network currently owns the broadcast rights to 22 football games each and every year, lots of of them on FS1.

Which is about 80 hours of programming, and it are not able to all be filled with Massive Ten and Large 12 online games — except if, of system, Fox options to abandon the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window.

Typically, networks are loath to relinquish sports activities articles they presently individual, but the dynamics in the college soccer programming environment have altered noticeably in the past few months.

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The Major Ten is “not accomplished yet” with expansion. Does that appear to be like much more of a warning to the Pac-12, Huge 12, ACC, Notre Dame or somebody else solely? — @JesseKolodkin

It is not a warning to Notre Dame, which is calling its own photographs. If something, it could sign the Major Ten is keeping out hope of grabbing the Irish in a handful of yrs.

And it is not a warning to the Huge 12, which has no properties of use to the Significant 10.

But the Pac-12 and ACC are susceptible to upcoming poaching, the previous additional than the latter: With a grant-of-legal rights settlement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is improved defended in opposition to raids by the Massive Ten and SEC the Pac-12’s grant of legal rights deal expires in two a long time.

(That explained, we feel North Carolina, Virginia and Ga Tech could be on the Major Ten’s radar in the potential dependent on a mixture of educational clout, media price, and recruiting pipelines.)

The latest circumstance is unprecedented.

Each utterance from the Huge Ten about more enlargement, no matter if it’s a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an nameless supply, is taken as an immediate danger to the Pac-12’s survival.

We see place for nuance:

Certain, those people feedback could be taken to necessarily mean invites for Washington, Oregon, Stanford and potentially Cal are mere months or months absent.

But the Major 10 may well not broaden again for several many years, and it may only broaden once again if Notre Dame is associated.

All we know is that presumptions are risky when it comes to realignment.

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Is there any chance that Utah will get an invite to the Major Ten along with Oregon and Washington? Or is it Cal/Stanford around Utah just due to the fact of market place dimensions and politics? Is it not sufficient to be great at soccer? — @UtefanNick

We’ll remedy the previous question, about the significance of getting great at football, with eight words: Rutgers is a member of the Large 10.

Growth selections are designed on a few valuation stages: institutional (tutorial) benefit, aggressive worth, and media worth. The earnings piece will get the most attention, for fantastic reason, but it’s not the only driver.

We don’t envision a route for Utah into the Big 10 unless of course the Power Five framework completely implodes and the league settles on an 8-team western division with the 4 California schools, Oregon, Washington, the Utes and just one other plan.

Which is exceptionally not likely centered on the present ecosystem. But once more, hardly ever say under no circumstances with realignment.

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What are the odds of a Pac-12 collapse if the Big Ten poaches Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon in 2024? — @rwgriswold4

100 %.

In that situation, a full of 6 educational institutions would be headed to the Major 10, and the 4 Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would without doubt leave for the Big 12.

Guaranteed, the convention could reform with Oregon Point out, Washington Condition and a slew of Mountain West educational facilities, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only.

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What if UCLA experienced tried to carry Cal into the negotiations with Fox, the Major 10 and USC at the outset? If both equally UC educational institutions would have taken a severe price reduction, could a deal have been swung that incorporated Cal in the go? — @paul_raich

Initially, UCLA was not using a discounted share — the full cause for the move was to acquire enough earnings to spend off the athletic department’s financial debt and assistance the sports activities plans going forward.

I have not verified that UCLA inquired about membership for Cal, but which is however a unique possibility. And if the Bruins built the endeavor, Fox would have whispered to the Large 10 that the figures didn’t function.

In truth, the figures really do not operate for any single Bay Spot or Pacific Northwest college — none of them carry ample media worth to increase the share sizing for present-day Significant Ten users.

They only do the job as a team, if the intent is to build a West Coast division.

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Can UC regents block a lawfully binding arrangement manufactured by a  chancellor to whom they granted this sort of authority without the need of important adverse implications? — @tkz33272766

It all relies upon on what documents the Bruins have signed with the Major Ten, and we aren’t presently privy to that details.

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If the regents’ math is suitable about USC being 30 % of the meeting worth, forcing UCLA to stay will price tag the UC technique at best $35 million a calendar year, and at worst $65 million for each calendar year, suitable? — @JohnmyMacJr